Togliatti K., S.V. Archontoulis, R. Dietzel, L. Puntel, A. VanLoocke (2017) How does
inclusion of weather forecasting impact in-season crop model predictions? Field Crops
Research. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2017.09.008
- Determine the impact of weather forecast length on WRF accuracy
- Quantify the impact of weather forecasts accuracy on APSIM prediction accuracy.
We tested a combination of short-term weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to predict in season weather variables, such as, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and radiation at four different forecast lengths (14 days, 7 days, 3 days, and 0 days). This forecasted weather data along with the current and historic (previous 35 years) data were combined to drive Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) in-season corn [Zea mays L] and soybean [Glycine max] grain yield and phenology forecasts for 16 field trials in Iowa, USA.
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Figure 2. Weather sensitivity analysis figure, showing the impact of weather variable changes of negative and positive 15% and 30% and how those impact yield in panel a. Panel b is showing the percent likelihood of a change in weather variable happening over the last 35 years. The white empty space in panel a represents the 20% error that was chosen for weather variables.